Contributions of local LUCC spatially explicit scenarios for water management: Lessons learned from an ex-post evaluation

Although potential benefits and limits of scenarios are well known, few studies verify their impacts on knowledge production public decision-making in the long term. In this paper, we perform an ex-post evaluation land-use land-cover change (LUCC) produced 2004 aiming to support water management. The objective is evaluate what extent those reflect expectations understand which factors influenced occurrence impacts. Moreover, provide insights driving forces considered LUCC modelling that produce plausible at a watershed level. At time horizon scenarios, used semi structured interviews, combined with quantitative comparison between observed simulated LUCC. Results indicate fulfilled original purpose: definition local management strategy. Furthermore, they promoted multidisciplinary perspective within land managers facilitated recognition challenges opportunities faced by farmers. Nevertheless, failed creating shared vision future across groups different actors. lessons learned from synthesized guidelines can be enhance any scenarios.